Canadian traders are experiencing a turbulent spring as U.S protectionist policies create waves through national and international markets. In early April, the Trump administration enacted tariffs on various imports, including Canadian steel, aluminum, and select agricultural products, causing a rapid realignment in investor behaviour across Canada. The Bank of Canada has labelled the trade disruption a “once-in-a-century economic shock,” encouraging traders to reassess strategies as uncertainty increases.
The economic consequences have been instantaneous. The Canadian dollar fell to 71.9 cents USD in early April, its lowest since late November 2023. Inflation expectations have ticked up, and the TSX Composite Index experienced more volatility, losing more than 2.3% in the days after the announcement. At the same time, investor capital has been pouring into U.S equities at a record pace.
Canadians bought a record C$27.2 billion of foreign securities in February 2025, the most ever for a month, according to Statistics Canada. About 95% of those investments went into U.S stocks, notably large-cap tech and financials. Such migration is a sign of waning confidence in Canada’s near-term market prospects and a quest for relative stability across the border.
Matt Choi, founder of Certus Trading and veteran in Canada’s trading education space, considers the trend a rational but cautious evolution.
“In this type of environment, traders must wait and be selective,” says Choi. “The market is rewarding people who can keep calm and follow their rules. It’s all about keeping risk under control, because when emotions drive decisions, risk increases, and you end up losing your capital.”
As this is happening, many retail traders are implementing technical strategies that rely on identifying anticipated patterns and using strict entry/exit criteria rather than microeconomic trends that are still in flux.
“Fundamentals matter, but with geopolitical and macroeconomic noise reigning these days, any short-term trade must be backed up with clean, repeatable signals. The trick is to embrace this uncertainty and wait, and only act when you see a repetitive pattern. These patterns repeat again and again. That’s when you act,” says Choi.
Canada’s trading ecosystem has changed dramatically over the past five years, with retail investor participation nearly doubling since 2020. Active retail trading accounts at the Canadian Industry Regulatory Organization (CIRO) surged, from 2.9 million in early 2020 to more than 5.4 million by late 2024. Much of this growth has been attributed to younger investors, who have been attracted to low-commission platforms and access to real-time markets through mobile apps.
But this surge of new participants has come against an increasingly complex global backdrop, including inflation shocks and war-related supply chain disruptions, which have pointed to the need for education and risk awareness.
“The traders that survive in environments like this are the ones that understand that protecting capital is priority number one. What matters is knowing risk management and keeping a balanced portfolio, more so than finding a perfect strategy. That shift in perspective has been essential to sustained success,” says Choi.
In retaliation for the U.S. tariffs, the Canadian federal government announced targeted relief packages for some manufacturing and agricultural sectors. Ottawa is also seeking negotiations aimed at easing trade barriers, although officials have said that retaliatory tariffs are still a possibility.
Political pressure is escalating. Trade policy has moved to the center of both major parties’ platforms as federal elections approach. The Conservative Party is promising a tougher line on Washington, while the Liberals are proposing a multilateral response from Canada, including strengthening economic ties with Europe and Asia to help Canada withstand disruptions in North America.
With the macroeconomic environment still evolving, some Canadian traders are doubling down on commodities, especially energy and metals, while others are looking toward global ETFs and defensive areas like utilities and healthcare.
Year-over-year trading volume in energy stocks soared 18% in Q1 2025, according to the latest data available from the TMX Group. Renewed interest in Canadian oil and gas exports, aided by a surge in global prices, resulted in yet another profit boom. But the road ahead is far from clear.
“Markets don’t like uncertainty, and right now we’re getting it from every angle, including trade, politics, and inflation. That’s why discipline is everything. That written plan and the discipline to execute it is what differentiates professionals from gamblers,” says Choi.
For retail traders in Canada, it may well prove to be timely advice. As rates remain stubbornly high and economic headwinds gather, the time for strategy, resilience, and calm has never been more urgent. Though the U.S. fees have cast a shadow over immediate prospects, some traders view the moment as an opportunity to hone their skills and reset expectations.
“Volatility isn’t necessarily a bad thing,” Choi said. “For a trader who is prepared, it generates opportunities. But without a framework, it’s chaos.”
